Clem Sunter

Clem Sunter was born in Suffolk, England on 8 August 1944 and was educated at Winchester College. Clem Sunter went to Oxford where he read Politics, Philosophy and Economics before joining Charter Consolidated as a management trainee in 1966.

In 1971, Clem Sunter moved to Lusaka in Zambia to work for Anglo American Corporation Central Africa.  Clem Sunter was transferred in 1973 to the Head Office of Anglo American Corporation of South Africa in Johannesburg.  Clem was Chairman of the Gold and Uranium Division from 1990 to 1996. Clem Sunter is probably best known for his "High Road/Low Road" scenarios from South Africa in the Mid 1980's. Clem Sunter is now Chairman of Corporate Affairs and Chairman of the Anglo American Chairman’s Fund.

In early 2001 "The Mind of a Fox" co-authored with Chantel Ilbury, was released. The book anticipated a major terrorist attack on a western city before the September 11th tragedy in New York. The book has sold over 40000 copies.

In 2007, Clem Sunter’s new book, “Socrates and the Fox: A strategic dialogue”, co-authored with Chantel Ilbury, was released. By its very nature Socratic dialogue transforms the strategic conversation from the normal, dreary type of superficial analysis that companies go through nowadays to a full-blooded, back-to-basics debate. Clem and Chantell have developed a unique and independently crafted methodology which integrates scenario planning into the mainstream process of strategic planning and decision-making. Their version of the Socratic method has come about through rigorous application, re-evaluation and fine-tuning in the course of facilitating countless sessions with a diverse portfolio of companies throughout the world – from giant multinationals to family-run businesses.

Clem Sunter continues to be one of the country's favourite speakers ... his presentation style is both thought provoking and entertaining. Other presentations are:

Games Foxes Play
Business is a game. Americans are natural hedgehogs and South Africans are natural foxes. “We like foxes”, says Clem Sunter, but we don’t like hedgehogs or rimless wagon wheels, we do prefer circles and we do like games. The 'we' is Clem Sunter and Chantell Ilbury, and Sunter is talking about their latest book, 'Games Foxes Play — Planning for Extraordinary Times'.

The Mind of a Fox
The book is a follow-up and a fine-tuning of the authors' number-one bestseller 'The Mind of Fox', published in June 2001. 'The Mind of a Fox' put scenario planning back on the map and in the boardroom.

'Games Foxes Play' has taken the basic principles further, challenging the American hedgehog view that only leaders with a fixed, central vision can achieve greatness.  Sunter and Ilbury favour foxes, leaders with a balanced set of beliefs and the ability to adapt to change.

George W. Bush is a hedgehog. Nelson Mandela is a fox.

No confusing business jargon

One of the most appealing aspects of this business book is that it doesn't read like a business book. You don't get lost in confusing business jargon, which allows you to concentrate and enjoy the message of the book.

The premise is simple: Business is a game and just like any other game, the point is to win. First you need to decide what type of game (business) you’re playing, where the game is being played (the geographical footprint of the business) and who you’re playing against.

Next, you need to understand the rules of the game. For example, a premier rule in the South African business game, is black economic empowerment.

"Life changes at 80"

What about some key uncertainties of the future? How pricey is oil going to get? Sunter says with a dry laugh: "Life changes at 80" — 80 dollars a barrel of oil that is.
This, in a very simplified form is the first phase — defining the game. Next comes playing the game, where you discuss what you're going to do and how you're going to go about it in order to achieve success.

The book takes you through defining the game and playing the game step by step and is based on a five-hour strategic conversation model, preferably around a round table. Circles are good, affirms Sunter.

It's humorous, witty, easy to understand and decidedly relevant to all of us, whether you’re Anglo American’s chairperson, the owner of a small business, a student, or simply looking for a read that challenges conventions.

AIDS – The Challenge for South Africa

On the issue of HIV/AIDS, the majority of the South Africans can be divided into two broad categories: those who bury their heads in the sand and deny that the epidemic exists, and those that believe that it exists but they cannot do anything about it.  In this presentation, Clem Sunter offers a third view which is shared by a small number of people active in the HIV/AIDS field: there is an epidemic but there are plenty of things we can do to prevent it spreading further and to ameliorate the impact of increasing sickness and death among those already infected. 

The presentation covers the likely origin of HIV/AIDS; the current situation in the world and in Africa; why it has hit us so badly in South Africa; and the possible demographic, economic and social consequences for our society over the next twenty years.  Along the way, Clem Sunter disposes of many myths associated with the epidemic.

Finally, rather than proposing a grand, monolithic plan, he recommends a grassroots approach made up of many small initiatives, pursued on as wide a front as possible, to overcome the epidemic and soften its impact.  The message of the talk is that we can beat HIV/AIDS but we must all in our own way take appropriate action now. 

China’s Game

The game is simple but unprecedented. Whereas Britain put 30 to 40 million people through an industrial revolution in the mid-to-late 19th Century and had the colonies to draw its raw materials from; whereas America put 150 million people through an industrial revolution at the turn of the 20th Century and had its own raw materials; China is putting 1300 million people through an industrial revolution with neither colonies nor substantial indigenous resources besides coal. The only way it can do this is by establishing long-term supply contracts with resource-rich countries, the most recent example being the deal with Australia over uranium supplies. The imported raw materials are converted into manufactured products at between one-tenth and one-half of the cost of the West. As one observer put it, China has redefined the manufacturing space.

The game is fraught with risk because it relies on a harmonious world where many of the factors (including America's behaviour) are beyond China's control. Basically, China wants to regain its status as top-dog nation - a position it held for 1000 years from 400 AD to 1400 AD - by 2040. If it succeeds our grandchildren and their issue will live in a world very different to our own where the West has been the dominant player. They will have to get to know a culture and language which is very different to their own. They may even have to learn Mandarin. Equally, Americans will have to go through the same sort of psychological adjustment that the British did at the beginning of the last century.

Of course, even when China has the largest economy in the world, its per capita income will still be well below the Western average given the ratio of its population to that of any Western country. Yet, the enormity of the task the Chinese have set themselves can be illustrated by the following statistics. They intend doubling current coal production of 2 billion tons a year (employing 23 million people) to 4 billion tons a year by 2015 and they are currently adding 70 gigawatts a year to their power grid (equivalent to 2 South African or 1 British power grid a year). They have 32 nuclear power plants in the pipeline.

China's game is very open compared to Japan at the same stage of development in the 1960s. They export 38% of their GDP and now have over one trillion dollars in foreign exchange reserves. Moreover, the sizzling growth of foreign direct investment in China has meant that 58% of their exports are sourced from foreign-owned companies operating in China. It was noticeable that at the Central Party School, the elite Communist Party Academy where one of us gave a scenario lecture, all the slogans in the buildings were quotes of Deng Xiaoping, who was the architect of China's modern open-door policy. He began the game in its modern form in 1978, only 28 years ago. Ironically, to the masses, he is still way behind Chairman Mao as a national hero.

The World and South Africa in the 2010s

We live in a world that is constantly evolving, and yet within this evolution history seems intent on repeating itself. This paradox has been driven by our continued use of history as a source of experience to improve ourselves, but also by our remarkable refusal at times to learn from it. Interestingly, our world has remained relatively predictable in one aspect for the last few centuries. The West has been the dominant force in global politics and economics - a veritable superpower apart from the former Soviet Union.

But the game has changed quite dramatically over the last three decades, with the emergence of new, and highly influential, players answering to different rules while tilting the global playing field their way. First it was the re-emergence of Japan, then the arrival of the Asian tigers and now the ascent of China. All in all, we are at a significant moment in the long time frame of human history because real change is happening literally before our eyes. One prominent American industrialist said: “I feel like the British did 100 years ago. America is still good at producing missile guidance systems, but how many of these can you sell compared to fridges and cars where the expertise has moved elsewhere?” This quotation suggests that a future in the 2010s - which is just around the corner - may be very different to the world we are used to; and as such, standard procedures in planning may be invalid.

This article examines the global game in the 2010s and constructs a variety of possible outcomes to it. Within these a set of scenarios that could play out in South Africa are depicted, which hopefully will take us beyond our current fixation on the 2010 Soccer World Cup. Given the immense complexity of the new global game and its influence on South Africa, no analysis can capture the true extent of what might happen. However, we are confident that our material will provide an effective framework within which people can ask themselves the pertinent questions, debate the future as they see it and act quickly and judiciously on their insight.

In order to put South Africa into context, we shall consider first the external (global) picture and then the internal (national) one. In so doing, we shall be following the classic methodology of scenario planning which comprises three steps: the rules of the game, the key uncertainties and the possible scenarios that emanate from them. The rules of the game are defined as those propositions that are virtually certain to apply under all scenarios. The key uncertainties are surprises that are lurking in the woods around you. They include shock events that can have a sudden impact on the game; or gradual threats that increase over time. The scenarios themselves are the possible outcomes to the game. Whereas the global scenarios are a chain of events which lie largely outside the control of a single country, each country does have some measure of control over its own destiny. This means that the desirable scenario for South Africa is, to an important degree, in its own hands.